The Ukraine-Russia War: A Grinding Test of Industrial Might

Air Defence

Ukraine has too few of the missiles that stop ballistic attack, and the drones built to stop jet Shaheds have been grounded by a satellite limit.

A source told CNN on October 15 that Ukraine had run out of Patriot interceptors; the Air Force stopped four of 39 ballistic missiles on October 13–14. Zelenskyy does not confirm the stock is gone, but on October 16 in Brussels he acknowledged “a major shortage”: most PAC-2 and PAC-3 rounds go to the Middle East, and Ukraine is “not the No. 1 priority”. He renewed his request for a 300-interceptor winter package, said Europe has enough to cover it, and said he does not yet know how many Europeans will give. Allies have so far named five missiles from Spain and a classified Polish number. A licence to build Patriots is still unissued.

Jet-powered Gerans are the other gap. In September the Air Force shot down 54 percent of 3,520, against about 90 percent of propeller drones. Interceptor drones that chase them steer over Starshield, which since October 14 cuts out above about 160 km/h; Zelenskyy said on October 17 the limit still stops them, and Kyiv is negotiating with Washington and SpaceX.

Civilian Harm

Civilians are being killed in Ukraine faster than at any time since 2022, and the people of occupied Oleshky are still waiting for a way out.

UN monitors verified at least 328 civilians killed and 2,105 injured in September, the worst September of the full-scale war, and 2,570 killed from January to September, 59 per cent above the same months of 2025. The mission’s head called early October among the deadliest periods in years. On October 17 an airstrike on Kherson injured 35 people, among them a one-month-old boy; less than an hour later a second strike on the same place killed an ambulance driver, the regional prosecutor said. A day earlier, officials said, attacks across nine regions killed at least eight people and hit shopping centres in Rivne and Sumy.

In Oleshky fewer than 2,000 people remain, without power, heat or running water. On October 16 Pope Leo XIV asked Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire to let food in and civilians out, and the Kremlin said Putin was ready to cooperate. The UN says the two sides have discussed a corridor but agreed nothing, and the Red Cross will act only if both do.

The Home Fronts

Europe has agreed on the size of Ukraine’s 2027 hole but not on how to fill it. EU leaders ended their October 15–16 summit by asking the Commission for a proposal to cover the extra €70 billion Kyiv says it needs; officials set no date, Sweden saw no movement on frozen Russian assets, and Slovakia said it and Hungary would not join another loan. Kyiv’s own figure is $32.6 billion of unconfirmed foreign financing, and the IMF says its year-end reviews depend on partners filling it.

The manpower fight moved to parliament. On October 16, 63 lawmakers registered a resolution asking the government to reverse its plan to cut the share of staff that defence and energy firms may shield from the draft. The prime minister said the rules were still being finalised and that full exemptions were being abused.

In Russia there is still no mobilisation order. Contract sign-ups ran about a tenth behind 2025 through September as average bonuses rose 30%, the autumn draft is smaller than last year’s, and the confirmed Russian dead now number 281,753 by name.

NATO & Ukraine Relations

The incidents on NATO’s eastern edge keep coming, and the alliance keeps answering them with meetings. On October 17 Romanian F-16s shot down two jet-powered attack drones over Romania’s territorial waters off Sulina, three days after a tanker burned in the same waters. Bucharest has called a dedicated North Atlantic Council meeting on Black Sea defence for October 20, and Bulgaria’s request for NATO aircraft and counter-drone systems goes to allied ambassadors the same week. Neither country has asked for Article 4 consultations, which no ally has invoked since September 2025.

On land, Poland has formally blamed Russian intelligence for a September fire at a Starlink ground station that carries traffic to Ukraine, after German police detained two Turkish suspects at Warsaw’s request. It has not published evidence tying the suspects to Moscow, and it is pursuing the case through the courts rather than at NATO.

On Ukraine’s membership nothing has moved since Marco Rubio said on October 6 that it is ‘not on the table’.

Peace Negotiations

Russia has added to its terms. On October 16 Putin said Russian forces were building a ‘security zone’ inside Ukraine along the border, and that Moscow did not plan to make it ‘a subject for potential peace negotiations’. The Kremlin puts the zone at 660 km of border. It lies in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, outside the four regions Russia already claims.

The same day Trump waived the sanctions and tariffs Congress passed in September, two days before they were due to take effect. Zelenskyy said the law ‘was supposed to impose truly effective pressure on Russia to bring this war to an end’.

On October 17 Zelenskyy said Washington had proposed a meeting of the three presidents — in the Gulf, at the G20 in Miami in December, or in Europe — and that neither Washington nor Moscow had confirmed it. Ukraine’s negotiator spoke to Kushner on October 16 to set up a meeting, which the Americans have signalled for next week. The New York Times reports, citing unnamed sources, that the envoys have also proposed reopening Russian gas transit through Ukraine as part of a settlement.

Russia's War Economy

The United States has switched off its own new sanctions law against Russia. On October 16, two days before the deadline, Donald Trump signed an order setting the law’s tariffs — 500 per cent on Russian goods, 100 per cent on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas and on the top facilitators of evasion — and waiving them in the same order, along with nearly all its sanctions on people and banks. The waivers have no end date. Sanctions under earlier executive orders stay in force, as does the Treasury licence of October 9 allowing Russian diesel sales until April 7, 2027. Lawmakers of both parties objected; Congress is in recess until after the November 3 midterms.

What Russia can sell is now limited less by sanctions than by its refineries. Moscow partly lifted its diesel export ban on October 10, and one tanker of about 40,000 tonnes loaded at Primorsk on October 13, against the 300,000 tonnes Trump said Russia would supply at once. The IEA says the easing will barely move the market, because drone damage, not the ban, limits exports.

The budget is still strained: the January–September deficit of 5.186 trillion roubles exceeds the 3.786 trillion allowed for all of 2026.

The Long-Range Strike Campaign

Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s grid has become nationwide, and it now hits heavy industry too. Over October 16–17 it sent nearly 800 drones in three waves, with ballistic and cruise missiles whose number the Air Force did not publish. The Energy Ministry reported energy sites hit in ten oblasts, as far west as Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil. Vinnytsia lost all power, and 270,000 customers in Volyn and 280,000 in Kharkiv were cut off. Six ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal steel plant, its owner said, and a German cable maker halted its factory in Lutsk. Officials counted seven dead nationwide.

Ukraine’s campaign, resumed on October 15 after a pause during the announced energy truce, has a measured effect to show. The strike on Ryazan halted one of the refinery’s four main crude units, industry sources told Reuters. On October 16 a drone set fire to a Gazprom condensate plant near Surgut, 2,340 kilometres from the border, and the regional governor acknowledged the fire. Satellite imagery confirms four Su-34 bombers destroyed at Borisoglebsk; Ukraine’s claim of two more damaged is its own.

Evolving Battlefield Tactics

The speed cap on Ukraine’s satellite-linked drones has not gone away.

On October 14 Starshield terminals in Ukraine began dropping out above about 160 km/h. Interceptor drones could no longer chase Russia’s jet Gerans, and the fast drones that hunt Russian supply trucks lost their link; ISW reported strikes on logistics vehicles fell sharply that day. Some units had service back on October 15, but on October 16 the presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said the limit remained and Kyiv was negotiating with the Pentagon, SpaceX and the US government, and on October 17 Zelenskyy said it still stops interception. ISW calls the position unclear. Beskrestnov also warned that Russia’s Rassvet satellites could let it steer drones and cheap missiles past Ukraine’s jamming within about six months.

On the ground, Operation Vivaldi north of Lyman shows how Ukraine has learned to advance under drones: months of strikes on Russian air defence, jammers and drone units first, then drone teams moving forward with the infantry, robots carrying supplies, and armour last. ISW judges Russia cannot bring mechanised manoeuvre back; its armour mainly delivers infantry, and its line units hunt supply runs inside a kill zone at least 10–15 km deep.

Territorial Control & Troop Movements

Russia’s leadership is claiming ground the evidence says it has lost.

At a command post on October 16, Valery Gerasimov told Putin that Russian forces had taken more than 1,800 square kilometres and 92 settlements since September 1; Putin said 6,500 this year and claimed Ukraine holds barely a tenth of Donetsk Oblast. ISW measures a net Russian loss of 122 square kilometres across the front since September 1, and finds Ukraine still holds 20.4 percent of Donetsk and 24.6 percent of Zaporizhzhia. Gerasimov’s five kilometres from Zaporizhzhia city is at least 21 on ISW’s count, and it found no evidence of the encirclement he announced in northern Kharkiv. Ukraine’s General Staff called the briefing lies.

The same briefing claimed Dobropillya and Kostiantynivka, the southern cities of the Fortress Belt. ISW does not see either taken, and puts Russian troops at least 9 kilometres from Kramatorsk. The real fighting is inside Kostiantynivka, where Russian infiltrators are working north of the city. North of Lyman, the Russian salient stays collapsed.

ISW recorded no confirmed Russian advance between October 15 and 17 at Kupyansk, Sumy, Hulyaipole or western Zaporizhzhia.