Context: Recorded as a prediction resolving 31 December 2026. Palisa reports Russian internal deliberation at second hand and is the sole source for the requested extension. ISW notes Putin has set 15 Donbas deadlines since 2022, none met, and calls a 2026 seizure highly unlikely.
Tracked Statements (2)
Russia's military leadership has been tasked with preparing several operational scenarios for an offensive in northern Ukraine, with Kyiv and Chernihiv identified as key areas. Indeed, several options were considered. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has developed possible response scenarios, including measures to defend, protect, and counter these actions.?
Context: Palisa says the information was verified and came from several intelligence sources he did not identify as Ukrainian or foreign. His own caveat is the material one: no new offensive groupings are currently detected in the Kyiv or Chernihiv directions, so this describes contingency planning rather than an assembled force.